In the run-up to the November election, a healthy economy is likely to cause a turnaround in US opinion, writes columnist Arnaud Leparmentier.
epublicans thought they would win a by-election in New York State by nominating a former American-Israeli Democrat from Ethiopia. Taking into account the influx of migrants to New York and Democratic divisions between the Jewish electorate and pro-Palestinian progressives – in the end, the choice of candidate didn’t help. On Tuesday, February 13, the Republicans lost. The Democrats have won election after election, especially since the Supreme Court overturned the federal right to abortion. It’s a warning to those who rejoice at Donald Trump’s announced comeback, that nothing is certain.
Of course, the expected duel will take place. Short of a miracle, no one believes that the former Republican president will be barred by the courts. Trials have no bearing on his popularity and seem at times derisory, like the one expected in New York over the hush-purchase of an escort girl with campaign funds. Barring a major health accident, the oldest sitting president of the United States, Joe Biden, an octogenarian with slurred speech, will be the Democratic candidate, along with his unpopular Vice President Kamala Harris, whom he did not want to replace so as not to offend women and the Black community.
And yet, what a record, especially if viewed from the left! Full employment, growth, innovation and industrial reinvigoration. Inflation is under control, purchasing power is on the rise again, and the country enjoys abundant energy resources. “It’s the economy, stupid,” said advisor James Carville to Democratic candidate Bill Clinton in 1992, as he set out to defeat patrician George Bush after the end of the Cold War and victory in the first Iraq war, but amid an economic recession.
Surviving a crisis
Many analysts explain that the standard recipe for success no longer works in a world ultra-polarized on “values.” In reality, it has always worked, especially when households feel economic woes tangibly (unemployment, inflation and gas prices). This is how Gerald Ford (1976), Jimmy Carter (1980) and George Bush (1992) were defeated in times of recession or stagflation.
Trump too. The Republican certainly had a very prosperous start to his term, but by the time of the November 2020 election, Covid-19 had put millions out of work, while no vaccine existed. Let’s dare to wager that, had Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines been announced two weeks earlier, just before the election, the outcome might have been different.
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Who’s Running for President in 2024?
Most of Mr. Trump’s Republican challengers ended their campaigns before a single vote was cast, and he overwhelmingly won the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses over the remaining field — partly because voters did not coalesce around a single alternative, but also because of the tight hold he still exerts on the party’s base.
On the Democratic side, Mr. Biden is similarly dominating the field.
Campaigns 2016 to 2024: When Candidates Entered and Exited Their Races
In the past two presidential election cycles, most announced their bids by summer the year before Election Day and dropped out by Super Tuesday.
DONALD TRUMP
NIKKI HALEY
DEAN PHILLIPS
INDEPENDENTS
CORNEL WEST
JILL STEIN
Reporting by Costas Pitas and Susan Heavey; Editing by Jonathan Oatis, Lisa Shumaker and Daniel Wallis
